Friday, May 28, 2010

Stanley Cup Final Prediction and Probabilities


[For an explanation of the table and how the odds were computed, see here].

Not much to say here.

If the regular season was any indication, all three of Chicago's playoff opponents were better teams than the Flyers.

If that doesn't reflect the imbalance between the two conferences, I'm not sure what does.

CHI in 5.













Saturday, May 15, 2010

3rd Round Playoff Predictions and Probabilities


[For an explanation of the table and how the odds were computed, see here].

S.J - CHI

Although Chicago was the better team during the regular season, the Sharks have, to my eye, looked more impressive through the first two rounds. Chicago has simply not been anywhere near as dominant as I would have anticipated.

That said, I thought Chicago was the best team in the conference before the playoffs started, and, while their recent play has produced some doubt in that regard, that belief still holds true.

Thus, I'm going with the Blackhawks to win the de-facto cup final.

CHI in 6.

PHI - MTL

While both of these teams have received some good fortune in order to be where they are right now, the Habs playoff run has been more luck driven. Given that luck doesn't persist over time, this works in the Flyers favor.

Philadelphia may be the weakest opponent that Montreal has faced thus far, but they're still the better team.

I've enjoyed Montreal's playoff run immensely. During my tenure as a serious fan, I had never, before this year, had the opportunity to watch my team advance beyond the second round. Although the circumstances of their advancement leave much to be desired - as any self-respecting fan would prefer to see his team win on merit -, I'm glad that it's finally happened.

I have a feeling that it ends here, though.

PHI in 6.